As 2025 draws to a close, many of us will be reflecting on the past year and considering our plans for 2026. If buying or selling a property is part of that picture, then it’s important to have a good understanding of what’s happening in the housing market.
Of course, we won’t know the full picture until UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers her Autumn Budget (which, at the time of writing, is still two weeks away) – but there have certainly been signs of encouragement.
An improving landscape
For most of this year Guernsey's property markets have been a little up and down and it’s been difficult to gauge what might happen from one month to the next.
However we now appear to be experiencing a greater degree of consistency. The most recent quarterly States of Guernsey property bulletin shows steady sales activity in the three months to the end of September – with more homes selling this year compared to last.
Raw conveyancing data also shows that October proved to be the busiest month of the year so far in terms of transaction levels – with sales rising in both the Local and Open Markets.
According to the figures, 119 homes exchanged hands in October, taking the annual total to 763 – already 58 more sales than 2024.
Total property sale values at the end of October were also up by more than £137million on the same time last year to £604million.
Local Market
Much of the activity in the Local Market has been driven by properties priced between £600,000 and £1million – largely due to a softening in mortgage rates.
This slight drop – together with an easing of average house prices – has enabled buyers to move things along so they can access the necessary lending and manage their costs more effectively.
Despite the increase in transaction numbers, average values in the Local Market also appear to be holding relatively steady.
Open Market
October also witnessed 10 Open Market sales – the highest number for any month this year and half of which were sold to people new to the island.
All of this paints a largely positive picture. But it’s perhaps not unusual. We often see Open Market applicants coming over in the summer, getting to know the island, and following up with sales that go through towards the end of the year.
Levels of interest from the UK have also perhaps not been quite as great as we first anticipated at the start of 2025 – although that could well change post November 26 once Ms Reeves unveils her budget.
We’ve already seen increased activity in anticipation of any possible tax changes – and it will be interesting to see if initial enquiries translate into sales.
Property outlook
Regardless of what happens across the English Channel we expect levels of activity and average prices in both the Local and Open Markets to tick up towards the end of the year and into 2026.