Source: Savills Research (accurate to end of November 2017)
Above average annual turnover forecasted yet transaction numbers dwindle
■ November saw investment volumes of £245 million over eight transactions. This brings the annual total to £5.7 billion year to date. With circa £1.5 billion under offer or already exchanged in December as we go to print, indications suggest year end turnover could reach £7.2 billion. This would be down 10% on 2016 albeit still a relatively positive result and comfortably in excess of the 10-year average (see Graph 1).
GRAPH 1West End turnover to by quarter
■ Somewhat unnerving for the advisory community has been the notable drop in transaction numbers in 2017 to date; standing at 109, compared to 172 and 199 over 2015 and 2016 respectively. The most notable fall has been among deals under £50 million (see Graph 2). There is no apparent singular explanation for this fall. We see this as a combination of factors and reflects firstly a long term belief in the West End market, secondly the weak pound makes sales less attractive for overseas owners and finally a lack of other suitable investment media.
GRAPH 2Number of transactions
Source: Savills Research (accurate to end of November 2017)
■ On behalf of a private investor, Savills has sold the long leasehold interest in 61-62 South Audley Street for £9.55 million, reflecting a net initial yield of 3.06%. The two Mayfair retail units are arranged over lower ground and ground floors and total 3,392 sq ft let on two leases providing a WAULT of approximately 10 years with an immediate reversion upon settlement of an outstanding rent review.
■ In an off-market transaction, the Loftus family trust has sold 22 Baker Street to Lazari for £123 million, reflecting a net initial yield of 3.75% and a capital value of £1,661 per sq ft. The property totals 74,031 sq ft of office and retail accommodation. The offices are single-let to Fujitsu until 2025 at a rent reflecting £78.30 per sq ft.
■ Fabrix Capital has acquired a portfolio of six freehold mixed-use assets, all located in Soho. The properties offer a range of active management opportunities, not least the ability to capitalise on the highly reversionary income profile. Launched to the market in July with the option of either individual asset sales or a portfolio sale, the portfolio traded for £20 million reflecting a capital value of £1,322 per sq ft, almost 40% in excess of the guide price.
■ The IPD average net initial yield and equivalent yields both remain at 3.45% and 4.70% respectively (see Graph 3). Savills prime yield remains at 3.25%.
GRAPH 3West End yields
Source: Savills Research, IPD (accurate to end of November 2017)
TABLE 1Key deals in November 2017
Source: Savills Research