Research article

Outlook

Conflicting signals but strong start expected

 

■ As we predicted in our last Big Shed Briefing the market rallied in the second half of the year and take-up reached the longterm average level, bolstered by strong performance in the manufacturing sub sector.

■ It would be tempting to use Brexit uncertainty to suggest that we are about to see a drawn out decline in the level of take-up in the build to suit segment of the market. However, we are tracking a substantial amount of occupier requirements which, combined with an average amount of existing unit take-up, would deliver one of the best quarters of take up ever recorded.

■ The amount spent online continues to increase and in November 2017 reached 19.8% of all retail sales, the highest amount ever recorded by the ONS. Retailers adapting their own supply chains and continued growth by pure-play retailers suggest that the logistics sector will be the net beneficiary.

■ Given recent announcements from the development community we are aware that the scale of speculative development may rise in the coming years. However, given the transparency and level of data that now exists in the market we expect the current market equilibrium to be maintained.

Figure 30

FIGURE 30Online retail sales forecast

Source: ONS

 

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