SUMMARY

The Net Additional Dwellings (NAD) figures released this quarter confirmed that housing supply is continuing to grow. NAD reached 241,000 for 2018/19, up 9% compared to 2017/18. The increase was driven by 18,000 more new build completions representing 83% of the total, whilst 2% fewer homes were delivered via permitted development rights. New figures show that Affordable Housing delivery in 2018/19 has also increased, up 23% on 2017/18. 248,000 Energy Performance Certificates for new homes were granted in the year to Q3 2019, suggesting that housing supply is continuing to grow.

There are indicators however, that a slowdown in delivery is on the horizon. Housing starts remained below completions for the second quarter running in Q2 2019, down 3% on the year before. Our estimation of Affordable Housing delivery based on NHF data suggests there may have been a small decline in delivery in the year to Q2 2019, caused by a fall in delivery of Affordable Rent homes. The Build to Rent (BtR) pipeline is bucking this trend; starts have stabilised at around 9,000 per year. This leaves starts ahead of completions, which are running at around 8,000 per year. The substantial and growing pipeline of large schemes coming through suggests the number of BtR completions should increase next year.

The regional variation in volume of new housebuilding remains, with supply exceeding the MHCLG standard methodology housing need in the midlands and north, while a substantial gap remains in the south. London delivered only 55% of standard method housing need.