House prices were flat in March, according to Nationwide. This means that annual house price growth was 3.9%, a slight uptick from February. The greatest amount of growth was in the North West (5.9%) while London saw the lowest growth (1.9%). This continues the general pattern of growth that has prevailed over the last few years where more affordable parts of the country have seen the highest growth.

Completed transactions in February were 10% above the 2017-19 average for the month, with buyers hastening to beat the Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) deadline at the end of March. We expect completions to then dip in April, following a flurry of activity. First Time Buyers (FTBs) will be most affected, with the proportion liable for SDLT likely to double to 42%, according to Zoopla.  Mortgage approvals dipped only marginally in February, but we may see a bigger fall in subsequent months.

Demand from buyers fell sharply in the run up to the SDLT change, with reported new enquires dropping to levels not seen since autumn 2023, according to RICS. The question will then be how soon do buyers return to the market? Typically there is a lull of a few months following such changes to SDLT.

Meanwhile, surveyors report stock remaining relatively high, and continuing to increase. This supply and demand gap has lessened the upward pressure on house prices.

US tariffs announced on 2^nd April have caused global economic turmoil, but it is too early to assess the impact on the UK housing market. The immediate impact has been on global stock markets, which have suffered significant falls over the few days since the announcement. This has already had an impact on wealth and the ability of some buyers to raise deposits. The wider effect on consumer confidence will take time to become clear, but the economic outlook has certainly weakened. This has heightened the downside risks to our forecasts, with price growth and sales activity likely to be affected.

The outlook for mortgages will remain a key factor in the housing market. Rates have remained steady over recent weeks and the Bank of England is still expected to cut the base rate again in May. But other costs (tax rises, utility bills) have risen, and this will have an impact on affordability. Financial regulators have confirmed they are consulting on increases to loan-to-income thresholds, which may support some first time buyers. Without additional housing supply, however, there is a risk that such a move would simply push up prices, particularly in London.

House price growth was highest in Scotland. In the year to December 2024, Clackmannanshire and West Dunbartonshire had the highest growth of 8.9% and 8.5%, respectively. The south coast continues to see the greatest price falls, notably in Torridge and Worthing (both -3.9%), with coastal regions in England and Wales also seeing price falls.

Annual rental growth across the UK in March was 3.2% according to Zoopla, a slight increase from January (3.0%). This is despite tenant demand dipping to the lowest level in over four years, according to the RICS survey. The level of rental stock, however, remains low.

Rental growth is accelerating in most regions. The South West and Wales saw the greatest change in monthly growth (0.7%). Yorkshire and the Humber still saw slight rental falls of -0.1% on a quarterly basis, but this was more limited than last month (-0.3%). On an annual basis, the North West saw the greatest rental growth of 5.8% indicating that, as a more affordable market, there has been the greatest capacity for growth.