Transactional activity across the £5 million-plus market in London remains sluggish, as buyers bide their time before November’s Budget.

There were 93 sales above this price point in Q3 2025, 18% lower than the same period last year but 72% up on 2019.

The third quarter is typically a quieter period for the top end of London’s housing market, but the last few months have indicated a decline in activity, even accounting for seasonal trends.

So far this year, £2.94 billion has been spent on homes priced at £5 million or more, a 15% decrease compared to the first nine months of 2024. But notably, sales of properties above £10 million account for a significant share of this decline.

The very top end of the market is feeling the biggest impact. Both sales and values are only slightly subdued between £5–10 million, but activity above £10 million has seen a much steeper dip in momentum.

The number of potential buyers in this part of the market had already fallen since the end of the non-dom regime, and now the existing pool of buyers will be biding their time to see what this year’s Budget brings. That said, and given transactions are still taking place, there is still a layer of demand from opportunistic buyers looking to take advantage of the compelling value on offer.

Domestic buyers shift the £5 million-plus landscape

The largest proportion of £5 million-plus sales took place in Kensington (12%), marking a shift in buyer direction away from Chelsea (10%) and Belgravia (10%), which have reigned for the last five years.

Overall, the traditional prime central London postcodes of Kensington, Belgravia, Mayfair and Chelsea accounted for 42% of sales so far this year. This is lower than the 48% seen during the same period last year, as buyers expand their search areas to neighbourhoods such as Notting Hill, Bayswater, South Kensington and Marylebone.

This is primarily down to domestic buyers making up a bigger share of the market as they take advantage of softening prices and reduced competition. As a result, demand has shifted towards second hand homes in areas that are typically less synonymous with high-end international investors.

OUTLOOK

In the run-up to November’s Budget, there is likely to be continued caution from both buyers and sellers as they wait to see what impact any announcements may have on their finances. Depending on the outcome, there is the possibility of a flurry of activity post-Budget as some pent-up demand is released.

While the prime markets usually tend to lead a recovery, the opposite is true in the current environment. It may take some time for any tax changes to be fully absorbed before a delayed recovery takes hold. There remains an attractive prospect in central London for those with a long-term view and who recognise the fundamentals of the capital.

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