Resilience, recalibration and renewed opportunity across the region
Foreword
"The Cotswolds’ prime and super-prime markets continue to demonstrate remarkable resilience, underpinned by a longstanding lifestyle appeal and a chronic shortage of best-in-class stock.
Against a backdrop of wider economic recalibration, demand at the top end is highly selective but deeply committed, with buyers prioritising architectural integrity, sympathetic restoration, privacy, and connectivity.
Although the market has normalised from the intensity of recent years, interest remains steady from local, national and international buyers. When quality aligns with value, they are prepared to act decisively, particularly for period homes offering secondary accommodation, acreage and amenities. In contrast, properties requiring significant capital expenditure are experiencing longer marketing periods, reflecting a market that is price-sensitive but not price-averse.
For vendors, precise pricing and presentation are paramount, and for buyers, decisiveness remains key when opportunities present themselves."
Research view
Prime market shows signs of bottoming out
The Cotswolds has long been seen as a prestigious hotspot for both UK and international buyers. Its unique housing stock and varied lifestyle offering broadens the appeal.
During the Covid-19 pandemic and the well-documented “race for space”, prime prices in the Cotswolds increased by almost a fifth over a two-and-a-half-year period, driven by local moves, relocators and those from London or abroad. This all changed in September 2022 when Liz Truss’s mini-Budget caused economic turmoil and much higher debt costs. As a result, prices have fallen by -12% since then, leading to net growth of 4% between March 2020 and the end of 2025.
More recently, price falls accelerated throughout mid-2025 as rumours surrounding November’s Budget caused an unprecedented level of uncertainty, particularly for more discretionary markets. But prices stabilised in the final quarter of last year, signalling that the market is starting to bottom out and buyers are looking to take advantage of the value on offer.
Value comparisons
The Cotswolds’ top spots have long been contested. Ultimately, it’s down to personal preference; some buyers will look for privacy and seclusion while others want connectivity and a livelier atmosphere.
From an analyst’s perspective, it comes down to the data. Highest value markets include Burford — often referred to as “the gateway to the Cotswolds” — the picturesque town of Stow-on-the-Wold, and Kemble, the closest settlement to Thames Head.
Other notable areas for high-value sales include the surrounds of Cheltenham, Long Compton, and Stroud.
Buyer profiles
Representing some of the UK’s most sought-after housing markets outside of London, the Cotswolds continues to have global appeal. International buyers accounted for just over a fifth of sales above £1,500,000 last year, almost double the proportion seen across the wider regional markets and higher than the 12% average recorded for the previous five years. North American buyers, in particular, increased to 13% in 2025, up from the 3.5% long-term average.
Despite this international appeal, domestic demand also remains strong, particularly from needs-based upsizers who accounted for almost half of buyers last year. Those from London also increased in 2025, making up almost half of buyers and nearly on par with the peak of 51% seen during the Covid-19 pandemic.
This highlights the variety of demand and the attractiveness of the Cotswolds for families, relocators, and second home buyers from the capital.
Outlook
Looking ahead, we expect more stability for prime prices and activity this year, as buyers and sellers have more certainty surrounding the property tax environment. We are forecasting price growth to return to the prime regional markets in 2026, albeit at a modest pace.
Although second home markets continue to contend with numerous tax and policy changes, an encouraging start to the year, together with recent price adjustments, means recovery is likely to begin here too.
Over the medium term, the new High Value Council Tax Surcharge could lead to more downsizing and additional moves from those with the most mortgage debt. But we aren’t expecting a significant rush of stock to come to the market, given the likelihood that owners will be able to defer charges until sale or death.
Beyond 2026, stable inflation, the expectation that interest rates will continue to fall and rising GDP levels mean there is more capacity for house price growth from 2027 onwards.