Consumer behaviour is expected to remain cautious, with value‑led, intentional spending now embedded. Grocery sales should continue to grow modestly in nominal terms, but with limited volume upside, reinforcing the sector’s defensive rather than growth‑driven profile.

Operationally, retailers will remain focused on cost discipline, portfolio optimisation and format evolution as pressure on profit margins and balance sheets persists. Further contraction of hypermarkets is expected, alongside continued expansion of compact urban formats and ongoing market‑share gains for discounters. Digital investment will remain store‑led, prioritising omnichannel capability over standalone online growth, while sustainability regulation continues to embed higher structural capex requirements across refrigeration, energy, packaging and logistics. In a low-sales-volume growth market, financial strength, network agility and cost advantage will be the key determinants of outperformance.

As a result, we expect further consolidation and balance sheet optimisation through M&A and sale-and-leaseback in 2026, supporting higher investment volumes and creating renewed opportunities for investors. Single asset transactions are likely to remain limited, however, as owners continue to hold assets in anticipation of future pricing recovery.

_{Read the articles within Spotlight: European Grocery Report – Q4 2025 below.}