Optimism spreads to all the consumer-based sub-markets

Market sentiment in early 2026 reflects cautious optimism, despite renewed disruption from the Iran conflict. The dramatic oil price surge on 9 March, one of the most turbulent days in oil market history, illustrates how rapidly conditions can change, raising uncertainty over whether this is a temporary spike or the beginning of a deeper energy crisis. The speed of events underlines how quickly market commentary can become outdated.

Nonetheless, SaviIls prime yields remain broadly optimistic, supported by strong demand for available assets. Constraints persist due to limited stock and likelihood that some owners may now delay bringing schemes to market until the situation becomes clearer. Eight commercial subsectors are trending lower this month, with regional offices hardening by 25 bps since January.

Volatility has become the defining market characteristic in recent years. By late 2025, investors had largely adapted, gaining confidence that conditions were not deteriorating as sharply as anticipated. Rising investor and occupational demand, particularly in the consumer markets (see below), has signalled that investors are increasingly active, having woken up to the view that waiting for full stability may never happen. Subsequently, we anticipate yield movement in a downward trajectory in all 'consumer-facing' sub-sectors.

Looking ahead, whether investors maintain momentum or pause for breath will depend heavily on interest rate movements, given their direct influence on the debt markets and investor confidence.

Is an increasingly dynamic and diverse retail sector attracting investors back?

The number of retail brands is growing…

One clear indication that the occupational markets are improving in the retail sector, is looking at the volume of openings last year and the rising number of active brands now taking stores. Despite all the headwinds that have characterised the post-Covid narrative, in particular cost pressures and an inflationary environment, 2025 delivered exceptional expansion and diversification among UK retail and leisure brands. More than 1,500 Multiples grew, adding 8,200 new stores – up 7% since 2023 – with 390 brands opening at least five sites. The number of active brands has increased steadily, rising by almost 50 over the past two years.

What is most notable is the shift in the type of brands driving growth. In 2023, 55% of multiple-retailer openings came from brands with 100+ stores, while a third were from those with fewer than 50 stores. By the end of 2025, the pattern reversed – half of all openings last year were from smaller brands, with retailers with fewer than 20 stores accounting for a quarter of all new openings.

This highlights the acceleration of smaller, fast-scaling operators, many of which also have good financial backing. Large chains still dominate acquisitions, but the rapid rise of smaller brands is creating significant future expansion opportunities. Based on current trajectories, there is potential for around 12,700 additional stores from brands with fewer than 50 sites in the next three to five years.

While this has so far only had a nominal positive effect on vacancy rates nationally, rates in high-demand locations are falling significantly. This marks one of the most dynamic periods of brand growth the sector has seen in years, putting many previously overlooked towns and cities back on the agenda as a new cycle emerges.

…As is the investor buyer pool

While both occupational and investment markets are constrained by the availability of good stock, the expansion of ambitious retail brands is creating positive momentum. Competition for prime units is intensifying as multiple retailers chase limited high-quality opportunities, putting rental growth back on the agenda. Investor appetite is also strengthening, with strong bidding for top-tier assets.

Last year saw the return of institutional investors; responsible for 56% of all shopping centre transactions. Banks are increasingly willing to lend, in turn fuelling competitive bidding. This positive trajectory is expected to continue into 2026, when up to a third of Top 30 UK shopping centres may come to market. Major funds are focusing on dominant, high-performing schemes, but smaller lot sizes still attract a range of buyers.

Shopping centre income could deliver some of the strongest five-year returns in UK property, making a robust occupational market key to driving investor demand. As an increasing number of brands grow their portfolios into secondary markets, investor confidence could also extend to these locations in the coming years.

Despite improving sentiment, limited availability of good-quality stock continues to restrict transaction volumes across all commercial sectors. It may be premature to call this a retail renaissance, but with both occupier and investor activity improving, it is clear retail is back in fashion.

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