Contents

• Where do values sit now?
• Prime central London local variation
• Who is buying in central London in 2026?
• The view ahead
• Mapped: value variation across central London

For more than a decade, prime central London has been defined by tax changes, shifting political sentiment, economic pressure and uncertainty.

But in many ways, the challenge facing central London is not one of demand, but one of a mismatch between buyer and seller expectations. Nowhere is this more evident than in a market where neither side is under significant pressure to transact.

Buyers remain active but they are discerning and highly price sensitive, carefully weighing quality, location and lifestyle considerations with costs and global alternatives.

Many sellers, meanwhile, are still adapting to a changed market.

The result is a market in which value remains firmly in the eye of the buyer. For sellers willing to meet the market, transactions are happening. For those whose price expectations remain out of step, the search for a buyer can be considerably longer.

WHERE DO VALUES SIT NOW?

Despite greater stability at the start of 2026, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and domestic political change have translated into further price falls in prime central London. Values are now -26% below their previous 2014 peak, having fallen by -2.5% so far this year.

Houses have remained more resilient than flats, particularly at the top end of the market. This tallies with recent activity which shows a 24% annual increase in sales above £10 million during the second quarter. Though buyers at this level are typically driven by choice rather than necessity, they are willing to commit when compelling value and exceptional homes become available.

PRIME CENTRAL LONDON LOCAL VARIATION

This has also led to some disparity in performance across the local markets of central London. While more needs-based family house markets such as Notting Hill have seen annual price falls remain below -4%, the fringe central London markets of Earl’s Court, Pimlico and Westminster have seen values fall by more than -6%.

Across all, best-in-class homes continue to attract the most meaningful demand. Immaculate properties command a premium of 30% compared to those considered to be in need of upgrade, highlighting that the gap between the most desirable homes and secondary stock is continuing to widen.

More broadly across central London’s £5 million-plus market, houses made up more than 60% of sales during the first half of the year, the highest share since 2021, when buyers were prioritising space, gardens and enough accommodation to work from home during the pandemic. This is also reflective of fewer investor purchasers, who tend to favour flats over houses.

WHO IS BUYING IN CENTRAL LONDON IN 2026?

The tax environment continues to weigh on international demand, in particular, with domestic buyers accounting for 49% of central London sales over the past year, an increase on the 44% recorded 10 years ago. North American buyers have been the one international cohort to increase their share of the market – to almost 10% – over the past decade.

This reflects a combination of favourable exchange rates and continued political uncertainty across the pond.

For both buyer types, there has been an increase in those buying a main home, at the expense of investment and development activity, in particular.

Increased costs, specifically from additional stamp duty surcharges for both non-resident and additional home purchases, have dampened demand from these buyers. Second home buying remains relatively resilient, particularly among those from overseas who still see the benefit of having a base in London.

More broadly, the global ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) population, an important buyer group in central London, increased by 14% to a new high of 557,000 last year, according to the 2026 Altrata World Ultra Wealth Report. This growth is expected to continue, with numbers totalling 747,000 by 2030.

North America is forecast to remain the largest UHNW market globally, but Asia is expected to record the strongest growth of the three major UHNW regions over the next five years.

And despite reports of an “exodus” of wealthy homeowners from London, the UK’s capital remains home to 7,800 UHNWs, having increased 18% in the past year. In part supported by its reputation as one of Europe’s leading centres for AI innovation.

This suggests that the pool of potential buyers for central London is likely to continue growing, with a broader range of wealth sources and geographies underpinning demand. However, attracting that wealth will remain dependent on how London compares with competing global cities in terms of value, stability and broader appeal.

THE VIEW AHEAD

So, what’s next for prime central London? While much of last year was clouded by property tax speculation in the run-up to the Autumn Budget, we seem to have more certainty from the new prime minister this year.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and wider political change are likely to continue weighing on sentiment, but values are significantly below previous highs and buyer interest remains evident where pricing reflects market realities.

At the same time, London’s enduring appeal as a global centre for wealth, business, education and culture continues to attract a broad range of domestic and international buyers.

The increasing diversity of that demand base, together with the expansion of global wealth, should provide ongoing support for the market. While conditions are expected to remain challenging in the near term, we forecast growth to return in 2028 and for it to total 7.5% during the five years to 2030, following a gradual recovery in values.

But performance is likely to remain highly selective. Buyers are increasingly placing greater emphasis on quality and as a result, the growing gap between best-in-class homes and secondary stock is expected to continue.

Ultimately, the future of prime central London is likely to depend less on where values have been and more on how they are perceived by the next generation of buyers.

VALUE VARIATION ACROSS CENTRAL LONDON

Average values per square foot vary significantly across prime central London, reflecting differences in housing stock, buyer profile, local amenities and international appeal. This map highlights those variations, illustrating how pricing is distributed and showing how location continues to influence buying decisions in a market increasingly focused on value and quality.

To read more of our Residential Research please visit our Residential Hub

For more information, please contact your nearest local office or arrange a market appraisal with one of our local experts.

^{Read the articles within In Focus: Prime Central London – 2026 below}