Could this be the optimal time to buy in prime central London? We are seeing a market finely balanced between buyers biding their time and those keen to proceed. It feels rather like driving a car: will you stall or hit the accelerator? A tantalising question but for now we can only reflect on the year so far.

It started with such positivity. Expectations ran high that 2026 would be a year of fewer hurdles, when buyers would jump at the opportunities offered by a keenly priced London market after a frustrating stasis preceding the 2025 Autumn Budget.

But then the Middle East conflict introduced fresh layers of ‘what if’ that would come to characterise the following months. The spring market was subdued as inflation, rising oil prices and interest rates added to the uncertainty. We expect property prices to edge down this year.

Yet, as ever the picture is highly nuanced. The market for turnkey family homes has proved resilient, with buyers prioritising properties in good locations that are ready to move into. Many prefer to forgo the hassle and associated costs of planning permissions to extend or convert. When these ready-to-go properties come up, and buyers see real value, there can be two or three interested parties and realistic asking prices are being achieved.

Location, location, location rings ever true with buyers keen to future-proof by acquiring homes in the best postcodes. The strength of Belgravia across all price ranges in the past few months has been driven by the appeal of remodelled high streets, Elizabeth and Motcomb Streets, managed by the Grosvenor Estate, and extensive investment by the Cadogan Estate on Sloane Street and Pavilion Road.

A similar story is unfolding in Chelsea, where the family house market has without doubt been busier than last year, with buyers looking for value in an area where prices have come down by around 27% since 2014. With such high acquisition costs, purchasers are typically looking to buy for the long term, in order to trade fewer times in their lifetime. This translates to fewer new instructions, including the properties owned by non-doms who may have left for fiscal reasons but have no intention of selling their London foothold.

Kensington’s broad spectrum of inventory, from a £1 million flat to a £40 million house, remains appealing to domestic families, with the sweet spot for family homes in the £3 million to £8 million bracket. Meanwhile, neighbouring Notting Hill remains a target for the younger, wealthy tech community, and for Americans favouring second homes. Whilst Kensington and Chelsea are the most active parts of the £5 million-plus market, Hampstead is the next robust, for the first time, with the smaller markets of St John’s Wood and Regent’s Park also remaining in demand for family homes – mainly houses, with a few large flats.

Westminster has recovered well from its post-Covid dip. Of note are resales in understated locations such as Pimlico, which enjoys proximity to Belgravia while offering greater affordability, with appealing family houses priced between £1 million and £4 million. The most active buyers are UK-based, broadly resident in the capital already, although there’s interest from America, China and mainland Europe. Billionaires, who can jet between multiple properties across the globe and are less impacted by the tax changes that are keeping away some permanent residents, continue to look for trophy homes and London is still one of the places they want to be.

Meanwhile for millionaires, it’s not quite as perky. We can see a clear dichotomy between this needs-based buyer, and the discretionary market that has become increasingly selective.

With such ‘pied-à-terre’ buyers typically favouring large flats for £5 million to £15 million, this sector has been especially exposed. This includes new luxury developments, where price premiums and hefty service charges are deterring buyers, although Chelsea Barracks, one of the capital’s most successful prime developments, is a flourishing outlier.

Missing the traditional Middle East interest, Knightsbridge has seen prices dip by 25–30% and is going through a transitional phase. There’s certainly more on the market, with former rental inventory adding to available stock as changes to taxation and regulation prompt some landlords to bring properties to the sales market. With transaction levels dipping in Mayfair too, both markets offer opportunities for buyers: historically when central London turns, it turns fast.

Looking ahead, the Autumn Budget looms and the Middle East conflict rumbles on. Normal patterns of seasonality have all but disappeared and although August is not necessarily a true barometer of the market, the end of land-value-tax talk (for now) has banished one layer of uncertainty, allowing the market to focus on the opportunities and challenges ahead.

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